Genocide

What’s really big and smells bad? Genocide. –Unknown

What separates a good genocide joke from a bad? Its execution. –Unknown

The person who caused the crash at the Tour de France should be arrested for genocide. She tried to take out an entire race. –Unknown

For reasons we don’t understand, we wrote down the list of genocides that we will get to in a few paragraphs. After staring at that list, we mumbled to ourselves, “What the heck, genocides have the same statistics as earthquakes.” A few months went by. Then we mumbled to ourselves, “John, ya moron, plot the data.” After going to Wikipedia and plotting all the genocides in the 20th century, we yelled, “WHAT THE HECK, GENOCIDES HAVE THE SAME STATISTICS AS EARTHQUAKES!”

We then plotted all the wars in the 20th Century. As the figure shows, wars and genocides follow the same power-law statistics. At that point we quit writing this book and starting writing Volume II. We are now 80% finished with Volume II. That volume contains math, so I doubt many people are going to read it. (Hey, we doubt many people will read this book. We don’t care. It is a labor of love.) For those that despise equations, we’ll summarize our preliminary conclusions:

· wars from all time periods have the same power-law distribution

· the Pareto exponent is near 0.6. Any Pareto exponent of less than 1 implies most of the deaths occur during the few largest black swan events

· this is the same distribution as earthquakes if you equate number of deaths with earthquake energy

· data from the last 2,500 years indicates deaths by war and genocide are proportionally increasing faster than the population density. That is a scary thought. This data prediction is somewhat consistent with kinetic energy and dissipation within a turbulent system scaling with gas density to a power greater than 1. In other words, the number of human interactions scales faster than the population density. We are currently working through these math details

· based on the data, we predict 2 to 3 billion deaths in the 21st century. If not this century then in the 22nd or 23rd due to the random chance when the big ignition will occur

· a power-law distribution implies war and genocide are self-organized events. To be clear, this implies war and genocide are not random events. We repeat, not random events

· we’ve concluded that human civilization is in the turbulent limit where local enclaves form vortex-like structures. These vortex-like structures can also be thought of as interacting sandpiles. These vortex-like structures form hierarchies of larger vortex-like structures. Countries are a result of these hierarchies. Countries grow and dissipate just like vortices in a turbulent river or sandpiles on a shifting sand dune

· human migration is best described by fractal geometry

· cities form hierarchical networks best described by hierarchical fractal geometry. We have created a concept we call “hierarchical energy” to describe and quantify this phenomenon

· the Pareto exponent of 0.6 is due to the fractal geometry of migration, the formation of these vortex-like hierarchies of city-states, and the politics of conflict

· individuals can change the course of human history, but they can’t change the statistics

Back to Volume I and the dark side of humor. Genocide is defined as the deliberate killing of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group with the goal of destroying that nation or group. War is defined as armed conflict between nations or between groups within a nation or state. A war is not necessarily a genocide. The American Revolutionary War is a perfect example. That said, the line separating war and genocide is often blurry. Modern Orwellian propaganda techniques are making this line blurrier. The current Russian-Ukrainian War and Israeli-Palestinian conflict are cases in point.

During just the 20th century, historians estimate 200 million died in genocides (see “Ethical Issues in Public Health”, Theodore Tulchinsky). This number is eye-opening and stunning. Approximately 5.5 billion humans died during the 20th century. Thus, roughly 3.6% of all deaths during the 20th century are by genocide. That number is crazy incomprehensible. There is an enormous inconsistency with the murder percentages discussed a few chapters earlier and this 3.6% number. Like most of us, the Spanish research team that summarized human murder rates apparently turned a blind eye to genocide. If someone is gassed, or confined and starves to death, how is that not lethal violence???!!!

RFC: From the data in our plot, we estimate the number of deaths by genocide in the 20th Century is closer to 50 million. Although lower than Tulchinsky’s 200 million estimate, it is still a ridiculously large number. We also estimate 180 million died from war in the 20th Century. Clearly, the blurry line between war and genocide depends on one’s perspective. When it comes to killing, we find arguing over definitions and how to resolve blurry lines a waste of time. End RFC

Many at the United Nations Convention on Genocide debate what horrific events to classify as a genocide. In our humble opinion these discussions are sadly ridiculous. We are confident most “rational” and “moral” people agree any killing without a fair trial is wrong. Some even argue against capital punishment no matter how horrific the crime, but let’s not go there. We will return to the words “rational” and “moral” in a minute.

Below is a “very short” list of “black swan” genocides:

· 2022 to present: Ukraine genocide by the Russians for the umpteenth time (like all the cases on this list, the number of deaths is too many)

· 2020 to present: Tigray genocide in Ethiopia (300,000 plus)

· 2017 to present: Rohingya Muslim genocide in Myanmar (30,000 plus)

· 2014 to present: Uyghurs in China (unknown, but most likely 50,000 plus)

· 2014-19: Yazidis and Christian genocide in Northern Iraq and Syria (5,000 plus)

· 2003 to present: Sudanese genocide in Darfur (400,000 plus)

· 1996-97: Massacres of Hutus during the First Congo War (200,000 plus)

· 1995: Bosnia genocide (8,000 plus)

· 1994: Rwandan genocide of Tutsi tribe (500,000 plus)

· 1986-89: Kurdish genocide in Iraq (100,000 plus)

· 1975-79: Cambodian genocide, Pol Pot and the Khmer Rouge killing fields (2 million plus)

· 1972-78: Genocide of Acholi and Lango people by Uganda under Idi Amin (200,000 plus)

· 1971: Bangladesh genocide (1 million plus)

· 1962-96: Guatemalan genocide of the Maya population (40,000 plus)

· 1958-62: Mao’s Great Leap Forward (20 million plus. We should note many consider this event genocide, others bureaucratic incompetence. We find these debates a waste of time. All genocides are bureaucratic incompetence.)

· 1957-59: Mao’s anti-rightist campaign (500,000 plus)

· 1941-45: Soviet prisoner deaths by Nazis (3 million plus)

· 1941-45: Jewish Holocaust by Nazis (5 million plus)

· 1939-45: Polish deaths by Nazis (2 million plus)

· 1937-38: The Great Purge and Stalin’s order No. 00447 (1 million plus)

· 1932-33: Holodomor which is the Soviet starving of the Ukrainian people (4 million plus)

· 1915-1919: Assyrian genocide by the Ottoman Turks (400,000 plus)

· 1915-17: Armenian genocide by Ottoman Turks (1 million plus)

· 1914: Greek genocide by Ottoman Turks (500,000 plus)

· 1880-1910: Selk’nam genocide in Chile (3,000 plus)

· 1864-67: Circassian genocide by Russia (700,000 plus)

· 1840-97: Queensland Aboriginal genocide in Australia (20,000 plus)

· 1831-38: Trail of Tears, that is the forced migration of Native Americans in the United States (3,000 plus)

· 1804: Haiti massacre (3,000 plus)

· 1755-58: Dzungar genocide of the Qing Dynasty (500,000 plus)

· 1303: Siege of Chittorgarh in India (30,000 plus)

· Mongol Invasions of the 13th century. Estimates range from 38 to 60 million. This is more than 10% of the world’s population at the time. The destruction of Merv was especially brutal, with approximately 1 million slaughtered, many while Genghis watch approvingly while sitting on a golden throne in the city center

· Wei-Jie war of the 4th Century AD, targeting the Jie ethnic group (100,000 plus)

· 146 BC: Siege of Carthage by the Romans during the Third Punic War. Over 150,000 slaughtered, include woman and children. Consider by Ben Kiernan the “First Genocide”

· Going back further, around 400 BC Melos was destroyed by Athens during the Peloponnesian War. An unknown number of men were slaughtered. The woman and children sold into slavery (number of deaths unknown)

· Older still is the destruction of the Midianites by the Israelites described in Numbers 31:7-18 around 1400 BC (number of deaths unknown)

· According to Adam Jones, dominant groups would marginalize other groups as subhuman. Early written history only tells the story of the victors. Genocides and prehistory are a huge unknown

Unfortunately, this is the short list! Some important comments: First, all major religions have committed genocides. This includes dogmatic atheists. In fact, dogmatic atheists appear to be the worst offenders. Second, almost all political organizations have committed genocides including communists, democracies, dictatorships, monarchies, chiefdoms, and tribes. Third, genocides have occurred on all continents except Antarctica. Beware the penguins. Finally, all races have committed genocides. This proves incompetence is colorblind. It is sad to think, we are all descendants of mass murderers.

The good news is human existence is mostly peaceful. Bad news is life is punctuated with brief periods of extreme violence. These brief periods have a large effect on our sense of humor.

RFC: Contrary to appearances, the author’s multiple personalities, like most peoples’, are arrogant. Initially we wanted to call this war and genocide power-law the McCarten power-law or the Ozmioz scaling-relationship. Upon reflection, we don’t want our name associated with stupidity. We are confident Gutenberg and Richter don’t either. From this day forward it will be known as the Brutal and Stupid Power-Law, or the BS scaling-relationship for short. End RFC.

It is important to note, earthquake-like statistics are found in systems with no clear average. During times of war and genocide the murder rate is high. During times of peace, near zero. There are no random fluctuations about an average. Instead, the average is fluctuating. Because the fluctuations are so large, systems with power-law dynamics are difficult to control. Frustration sets in. The next few paragraphs are an expression of our frustrations.

Random Frothy Rant: Leaders are idiots. Bureaucrats are idiots. Followers are idiots. Doesn’t matter the era. For example, take the Third Punic War. It lasts 3 years. Out of administrative spite, the Romans lay siege to Carthage. At first things don’t go well for the Roman army. Speeches are made. More resources are sent to the war. Tensions rise. Orwellian-like propaganda fills the streets of Rome. Carthaginians are cast as sub-human. When Carthage falls in 146 BC all the inhabitants are slaughtered.

You would think after 2,000 years humans would learn. No, we are still idiots. Just look at the Nazis. They rise to power in the 1930s, in part by blaming the Jews for WWI. To sell more papers, yellow journalists pimp the hatred. Orwellian-like propaganda accelerates. WWII starts on September 1, 1939. Tensions rise further. Nazis administrators meet, and compound stupid decisions with stupider ones. During a dark meeting in 1941, someone proposes the “Final Solution”. Spineless idiots in the room nod in agreement. Clearly there were no adults in the room to challenge such spineless behavior. The Jewish Holocaust begins in earnest.

You would think in today’s modern world with communication at the touch of a finger that humans would be better educated and better informed. Wrong! In a totally self-serving move, Putin breaks the Orwellian sound barrier. He refers to the Ukrainians as Nazis. For God’s sake, the Ukrainian President is Jewish. What’s next? Fascist leprechauns, totalitarian munchkins, and Santa’s terrorist elves at the North Pole? The reality on the ground is Russian soldiers are raping Ukrainian woman and looting Ukrainian businesses. The Russian people don’t get a free pass on this one claiming they were blinded by nationalism. Collectively they are morons with a 13th century peasant mindset. As the old sarcastic saying goes, “None of us is as stupid as all of us.”

It is worth repeating bull is worse than lying. When we lie, we at least know the truth. Bull leads to propaganda filled alternative realities that serves only the administrative state. Bull is a dark pathway. This pathway usually leads to delusional hellish landscapes. Bull is also what gives us hellish power-laws. The people of George Orwell’s era learned this the hard way. Seems like every generation must relearn the mistakes of their ancestors. End RFR.

Now let’s take a deep breath and figure out how to move forward. Past efforts to stop war seemed to have had little impact. The Ancient Greeks created the Olympics as an outlet for our combative natures. The Olympics ran from 776 BC to 393 AD. Wars and genocide still raged during that period.

Religions are similar. Hinduism goes back to 2000 BC. Judaism, Confucius, and Taoism to 500 BC. Buddhism to 400 BC. Christianity to 50 AD. Islam to 600 AD. Although most believers will argue true followers never started a genocide or war, none of these religions appear to have made an impact on the number of wars and genocides.

The emergence of other institutions also appears to have made little impact. Schools and universities have been around for thousands of years. Theater and the arts also go back thousands of years. Different political organizations like kings, democracies, and socialism have made little difference. Communist is supposed to be the workers party, but the data strongly suggests that system is the worst perpetrators of genocide ever. The communist system clearly has some spite issues.

Jury is still out on the United Nations experiment. Deaths by war and genocide appear to be declining. However, the United Nations was created at the end of WWII, one of the biggest black swan periods ever. As discussed in Voume II, data suggests after big black swan events it usually takes a few generations for conditions to rebuild before a major escalation in conflict breaks loose again. Furthermore, the Cold War, with its policy of Mutually Assured Destruction, kept a lid on any major conflicts. But that policy only works if all actors are rational. It only takes one irrational push of the button to create the mother of all black swan events. Today there are many countries with different agendas, and as time goes on more and more of them are obtaining nuclear weapons. It is not clear what the UN can do. Furthermore, the UN really isn’t a police organization. And if it were, there is the challenge of who monitors the police. Corruption is a fact of life. After a few hundred years, most institutions start to rot.

So, what do we do? Looking at the big picture, human system dynamics are not complicated. The press, politicians, bureaucrats, and other leaders amplify conflict during periods of stress because it benefits their careers. This amplifies the stress, which leads to a positive feedback loop. Eventually the system collapses. Killing is like dissipation in a turbulent system. After a large burst of killing the cycle starts again. Vilfredo Pareto was well aware of this. It is part of what inspired him to invented the field of sociology.

Here’s part of the challenge. Morality is doing what is best for the community. By picking and choosing the definition of community as your local enclave or nation, every stupid administrator that took part in a genocide can argue they are acting “morally” and “rationally”. That is a creepy thought.

The larger challenge is we evolved from pack animals. Our evil laugh is a coordinated brain behavior signaling to others our pack-like tendencies. Our evil laugh flows from our old Laughing Motor Cortex through our hormone control center to our voice box. Unfortunately, genetic success is rewiring our evil laugh to our prefrontal cortex. We now “rationalize” our pack-like behaviors. That is an even creepier thought.

What’s even creepier still is that there is an upper limit to the size of a genocide, everybody. That would be a magnitude 9.9 for the Earth’s current population. A few times in humanity’s past we have approached the number of everybody. We’ve read the Mayans and their culture of total war were exceeding murder rates of 25%. The 13th century Mongols exceeded 10% of the Earth’s total human population. This was all before guns and weapons of mass destruction.

All that said, we all need to take a deep breath. To move forward we can’t deny who we are. We evolved from the wild. Conflict is natural. Our mindset is aggressive and spiteful by nature. On evolutionary time scales, human civilization is still very young. We can work through this. It is not a problem. It is simply a challenge. We have more to say in Volumes II and III.

The takeaway is the Brutal and Stupid Power-Law is simply BS. It is time to move on.

Footnote: In the United States we celebrate Thanksgiving on the last Thursday of November, followed by Black Friday and the start of the Christmas shopping season. It is called Black Friday because it is the day most stores go from the unprofitable “red ink ledger” to the profitable “black ink ledger” for the year. In Ukraine, they put a candle in each home’s window on the last Friday of November to remember the tragedy of Holodomor. Unfortunately, that is the real Black Friday. We should make the last Friday in November, “War and Genocide are Stupid Day,” and give thanks for every generation that lives peacefully. Let the con continue.